Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.469766 0.542336 0.620802 0.711747 0.814046 0.925348 1.055392
2025-05-25 0.357468 0.451045 0.559955 0.695323 0.858254 1.047187 1.281935
2025-06-01 0.287764 0.394996 0.528704 0.705898 0.932549 1.210567 1.574920
2025-06-08 0.229896 0.343197 0.494391 0.707557 0.996412 1.369781 1.883627
2025-06-15 0.194860 0.315264 0.486600 0.742480 1.107977 1.603185 2.314924
2025-06-22 0.151470 0.267017 0.442954 0.721828 1.142096 1.739006 2.634493
2025-06-29 0.120346 0.230972 0.410939 0.712991 1.191812 1.902387 3.011219
2025-07-06 0.094743 0.198255 0.378211 0.697767 1.229825 2.053247 3.386932
2025-07-13 0.080421 0.182200 0.370130 0.721060 1.331114 2.310251 3.947651
2025-07-20 0.065907 0.162222 0.351445 0.723274 1.398129 2.520924 4.458174
2025-07-27 0.055852 0.148792 0.342373 0.741188 1.494146 2.788303 5.084671
2025-08-03 0.047743 0.137473 0.335272 0.761625 1.597119 3.077444 5.773229
2025-08-10 0.036893 0.116864 0.305660 0.735112 1.614301 3.228020 6.255897
2025-08-17 0.027762 0.097361 0.273930 0.698499 1.607198 3.335284 6.675657
2025-08-24 0.022295 0.085900 0.258168 0.693464 1.662348 3.562725 7.331776
2025-08-31 0.017667 0.075064 0.241271 0.682763 1.704444 3.770221 7.971356
2025-09-07 0.015195 0.070251 0.239015 0.706469 1.823672 4.139632 8.946774
2025-09-14 0.011563 0.059569 0.217650 0.678848 1.825514 4.275614 9.487966
2025-09-21 0.009057 0.051821 0.202576 0.664315 1.855029 4.470755 10.161398
2025-09-28 0.006987 0.044637 0.187024 0.645200 1.870777 4.638227 10.793289
2025-10-05 0.005978 0.041746 0.184759 0.663034 1.979070 5.014121 11.878741
2025-10-12 0.004854 0.037523 0.176582 0.661951 2.039637 5.290753 12.779238
2025-10-19 0.004118 0.034918 0.173545 0.675982 2.141273 5.668646 13.921922